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<p>We study the formation of risk perceptions— subjective probability beliefs— of three adverse events—COVID-19 contagion, influenza contagion, and food poisoning—at the onset (2020) and outset (2023) of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. We show that perceived risk levels for COVID-19 are similar to those for influenza, are not significantly influenced by proximity to infection, and are shaped instead by an individual’s gender, education, and employment status. Using an instrumental variable strategy, we assess whether these perceptions influence a number of protective behaviors. We find that although risk perceptions are associated with various protective behaviors, they only causally increase the likelihood of phone or online medical consultations by about a percentage point.</p>

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Risk perceptions and protective behaviors at the onset and outset of the COVID-19 pandemic

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月29日

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  • Joan Costa-Font,
  • Melcior Rossello Roig,
  • Caroline Rudisill,
  • Luca Salmasi

摘要

We study the formation of risk perceptions— subjective probability beliefs— of three adverse events—COVID-19 contagion, influenza contagion, and food poisoning—at the onset (2020) and outset (2023) of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. We show that perceived risk levels for COVID-19 are similar to those for influenza, are not significantly influenced by proximity to infection, and are shaped instead by an individual’s gender, education, and employment status. Using an instrumental variable strategy, we assess whether these perceptions influence a number of protective behaviors. We find that although risk perceptions are associated with various protective behaviors, they only causally increase the likelihood of phone or online medical consultations by about a percentage point.