<p>This paper examines the institutional factors associated with college closures and enrollment changes from 2002 to 2022, using data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) through the National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES). Using logistic LASSO regression, logistic regression, and quadratic growth models, we identify key predictors of institutional vulnerability for closure. Our analysis pays particular attention to private religious colleges in comparison to public non-religious (including those with Catholic affiliations) and private non-religious institutions. Results show that institutions with limited financial reserves—particularly those in the bottom quartile of key financial indicators—and those with smaller enrollment sizes are at a greater risk of closure or continued enrollment decline. Among sectors, private Catholic colleges show the steepest enrollment contraction over time, marked by early peaks and sharp deceleration. These patterns suggest that the Catholic colleges are disproportionately affected by sector-wide challenges and particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in student demand and resource availability. The findings emphasize the need for sector-specific monitoring and highlight the potential need for targeted policy and financial responses if long-term viability is economically consequential.</p>