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<p>Marine heatwaves (MHW) events intensified by global warming, threaten Argentine shortfin squid (<i>Illex argentinus</i>), a key species in the Patagonian Shelf. To assess these potential impacts, the spatiotemporal characteristics of MHWs were analyzed using sea surface temperature data from 2013 to 2019, and the effects of these MHWs on the abundance and distribution of <i>I. argentinus</i> were evaluated using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and a habitat suitability index (HSI) model. The results indicated that: (1) MHW events exhibited high frequency and intensity in the northern coastal waters of the Patagonian Shelf (near 40°S), characterized by significant temperature anomalies; (2) The GAM analysis revealed a significant negative correlation (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) between catch per unit effort (CPUE) and the mean, maximum, and cumulative intensity of MHWs; (3) During MHW events, environmental conditions underwent substantial changes, leading to a sharp decline in the HSI and a shift in the distributional center of <i>I. argentinus</i>. These findings suggest that MHWs may regulate the habitat suitability of <i>I. argentinus</i> through environmental alterations, thereby driving changes in its abundance and distribution. This study confirms the negative impact of MHWs on cephalopod fishery resources and underscores the necessity of establishing climate-adaptive fisheries management strategies to mitigate the challenges posed by MHWs.</p>

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Impacts of marine heatwaves on the abundance and distribution of Illex argentinus on the Patagonian Shelf

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月3日

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  • Hui Liao,
  • Pengchao Jin,
  • Zhiping Feng,
  • Zhenwei Ji,
  • Jie Cao,
  • Wei Yu

摘要

Marine heatwaves (MHW) events intensified by global warming, threaten Argentine shortfin squid (Illex argentinus), a key species in the Patagonian Shelf. To assess these potential impacts, the spatiotemporal characteristics of MHWs were analyzed using sea surface temperature data from 2013 to 2019, and the effects of these MHWs on the abundance and distribution of I. argentinus were evaluated using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and a habitat suitability index (HSI) model. The results indicated that: (1) MHW events exhibited high frequency and intensity in the northern coastal waters of the Patagonian Shelf (near 40°S), characterized by significant temperature anomalies; (2) The GAM analysis revealed a significant negative correlation (p < 0.05) between catch per unit effort (CPUE) and the mean, maximum, and cumulative intensity of MHWs; (3) During MHW events, environmental conditions underwent substantial changes, leading to a sharp decline in the HSI and a shift in the distributional center of I. argentinus. These findings suggest that MHWs may regulate the habitat suitability of I. argentinus through environmental alterations, thereby driving changes in its abundance and distribution. This study confirms the negative impact of MHWs on cephalopod fishery resources and underscores the necessity of establishing climate-adaptive fisheries management strategies to mitigate the challenges posed by MHWs.