Nonstationary response of commercially pelagic species in the Humboldt current ecosystem to climate variability

In this study, the four most important species in the Humboldt Current System (HCS), Engraulis ringens, Sardinops sagax, Trachurus murphyi, and Dosidicus gigas were linked to four climate indices, sea surface temperature (SST) and wind speed (WS) based on multivariate statistical analyses, aiming to explore their nonstationary responses to climate variability. Significant decadal variations in the catches were identified, with regime shifts in the mid-1970s, early 1990s, and late 1990s. These shifts corresponded well to climatic and environment regime shifts during these periods. However, the response patterns to climate and environmental variations varied among species. Compared with other physical drivers, seawater temperature, wind speed, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) had greater ecological importance in driving changes in the four pelagic species. The variations in the important climate events influenced seawater temperature and wind speed fluctuations within the HCS, impacting on these commercially important pelagic species. Furthermore, non-stationarity was identified in the relationships between climate/environment and species catches, with different species showing different threshold years. The non-stationarity may be attributed to the transitions between warm and cold periods within the HCS, as well as shifts between strong and weak phases of pressure system. This study helps further understand changes in the HCS caused by fluctuations in climate and environment.