The influence of liquidity and default risks on presale housing contracts in Asia: a utility-based approach
摘要
In addition to transactions in the spot market, presale contracts constitute a critical strategic approach for trading housing, particularly within Asian real estate markets. In the valuation of presale contracts, these agreements are commonly interpreted as forward contracts from the perspective of developers, and as option contracts from the perspective of buyers. This study introduces a utility-based model and employs the indifference pricing approach to explore the influences of liquidity and default risks on the valuation of presale contracts. Upon examining the constraints related to liquidity in presale contracts, it has been determined that the liquidity effect can be disaggregated into two primary components: the "mean effect" and the "volatility effect". The "mean effect" refers to variations in liquidity across different time periods. A greater mean effect suggests more optimistic consumer expectations regarding future market conditions, leading to a preference for direct purchases in the spot market under these conditions. Conversely, the "volatility effect" encapsulates the discrepancies in market volatility across various time periods. An increased volatility effect correlates with less positive consumer expectations about the market's future, prompting consumers to opt for properties in the presale market under these circumstances.