The scorching temperatures shock effect on firms’ performance: a global perspective

The authors examined the possible adverse effect of hot temperature on firms’ profitability and stock performance, using measures of various scorching temperature variables as exogenous indicators of firms’ weather risk. The results show that scorching temperatures led to declines in the sample firms’ earnings caused by changes in sales, expenses, and productivity. The more extreme the hot weather, the more the earnings declined. In further investigations, the authors found that this impact of scorching temperatures was heterogeneous over time and across sectors, geographical locations, and levels of economic development. The impact was most severe in low-latitude regions, especially tropical and subtropical countries from 2013 onward. It was also found that extremely hot temperatures negatively influenced the stock returns of individual firms. This effect, mediated by the firm’s earnings, was especially strong for value stocks and small cap stocks. Our results also show that the firms’ profitability and stock performance are exacerbated by the increases in global average temperatures and provide the direct evidences of the adverse impact of global warming on individual firms. Finally, weather uncertainty aggravated the volatility of earnings and stock returns.