<p>We examine pricing behavior following the blocked merger between JetBlue and Spirit Airlines. We particularly focus on whether firms engaged in coordinated pricing. Using a two-way fixed effects model with instrumental variables, we compare fare patterns before and after both the merger announcement and the regulatory block. Despite the merger’s termination, we document patterns that are consistent with coordinated pricing, greater price alignment, and lower dispersion on overlapping routes — which possibly reflect information that was gained during the pre-merger due diligence. To deepen our understanding of firm conduct, we also tested whether JetBlue’s post-block decisions reflect strategic responses to cost information that was revealed during merger negotiations. The findings support the possibility that information-driven behavior, along with tacit coordination, shaped post-block market outcomes. In line with Adam Smith’s caution in <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>, even unrealized mergers may create channels for coordination and challenge the assumption that market competition naturally reasserts itself once consolidation is blocked.</p>

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Coordinated Pricing After a Blocked Merger: Evidence from the JetBlue-Spirit Case

  • Minhae Kim,
  • Myongjin Kim,
  • Junyeol Ryu

摘要

We examine pricing behavior following the blocked merger between JetBlue and Spirit Airlines. We particularly focus on whether firms engaged in coordinated pricing. Using a two-way fixed effects model with instrumental variables, we compare fare patterns before and after both the merger announcement and the regulatory block. Despite the merger’s termination, we document patterns that are consistent with coordinated pricing, greater price alignment, and lower dispersion on overlapping routes — which possibly reflect information that was gained during the pre-merger due diligence. To deepen our understanding of firm conduct, we also tested whether JetBlue’s post-block decisions reflect strategic responses to cost information that was revealed during merger negotiations. The findings support the possibility that information-driven behavior, along with tacit coordination, shaped post-block market outcomes. In line with Adam Smith’s caution in The Wealth of Nations, even unrealized mergers may create channels for coordination and challenge the assumption that market competition naturally reasserts itself once consolidation is blocked.