Industrial robots, marriage, and fertility: gender-differentiated evidence from China
摘要
Industrial robots are reshaping labor markets, while marriage and fertility behavior is undergoing significant change. Using six waves of the China General Social Survey from 2012 to 2021, this study examines the effects of industrial robot adoption on marriage and fertility behavior in China and explores the underlying mechanisms. The results show that industrial robot adoption significantly delays first marriage and reduces fertility. The fertility-reducing effect is significantly stronger for men than for women, while the marriage effect is not statistically distinguishable by gender. Further analysis indicates that industrial robot adoption affects marriage and fertility behavior through changes in the gender income gap, working time, and gender role attitudes. The effects also vary across social status groups and fertility-policy regimes. In addition, industrial robot adoption increases cohabitation, reduces divorce, and lowers fertility preferences, with the strongest effect observed for the ideal number of sons. These findings provide new evidence on the gendered family consequences of automation in China and offer policy implications for promoting balanced population development.