<p>Existing literature focuses on how the demonetisation in 2016 and the consequential economic slowdown affected the health outcomes in India. However, prior studies do not specifically address whether the fertility rate was affected by demonetisation. Existing studies support the view that fertility decision is endogenous and influenced by macroeconomic shocks. In this context, we examine how the demonetisation policy shock affected the total fertility rate in India. For this purpose, we applied synthetic control models and created synthetic control groups as control units where demonetisation did not occur. We find that demonetisation significantly reduced the fertility rate of India. The reliability of our findings is checked through several robustness tests, which suggest that our results are robust.</p>

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Impact of demonetisation on the aggregate level fertility trend of India: a synthetic control analysis

  • Jeet Saha,
  • Zafar Iqubal

摘要

Existing literature focuses on how the demonetisation in 2016 and the consequential economic slowdown affected the health outcomes in India. However, prior studies do not specifically address whether the fertility rate was affected by demonetisation. Existing studies support the view that fertility decision is endogenous and influenced by macroeconomic shocks. In this context, we examine how the demonetisation policy shock affected the total fertility rate in India. For this purpose, we applied synthetic control models and created synthetic control groups as control units where demonetisation did not occur. We find that demonetisation significantly reduced the fertility rate of India. The reliability of our findings is checked through several robustness tests, which suggest that our results are robust.