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<p>This paper investigates whether parental retirement affects the timing of adult couples’ fertility decisions and whether the effect is heterogeneous across family policy regimes in Europe. Exploiting variation in eligibility rules in a regression discontinuity design with panel data, I find a positive causal effect only in countries with weak family policies and strong family ties (i.e., in Mediterranean countries), where the result is driven by an increase in the availability of informal childcare. This finding suggests that raising the minimum retirement age might have unintended negative consequences on fertility rates by delaying the offspring generation’s childbearing decisions.</p>

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Parental retirement and fertility decisions across family policy regimes

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月9日

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  • Edoardo Frattola

摘要

This paper investigates whether parental retirement affects the timing of adult couples’ fertility decisions and whether the effect is heterogeneous across family policy regimes in Europe. Exploiting variation in eligibility rules in a regression discontinuity design with panel data, I find a positive causal effect only in countries with weak family policies and strong family ties (i.e., in Mediterranean countries), where the result is driven by an increase in the availability of informal childcare. This finding suggests that raising the minimum retirement age might have unintended negative consequences on fertility rates by delaying the offspring generation’s childbearing decisions.