Returns to women’s education within marriage: evidence from a regression discontinuity design study in China

Applying a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we examine the causal impact of education on marriage outcomes by exploiting the establishment of compulsory education law (CEL) in China. Based on China’s 2005 One Percent Population Sample Survey, we find that while the CEL did not affect the probability of getting married, the increase in female educational attainment led to a significant increase in their husbands’ income and years of schooling, particularly for women living in better-educated provinces. We show that their husbands’ socioeconomic status was not directly improved by the CEL. The effect was likely driven by women’s increased competitiveness in the marriage market, enlarged social circles through work, and increased household bargaining power. Our study highlights how socio-cultural and economic contexts shape the impact of educational reforms, offering valuable insights into non-market returns to education and the dynamics of assortative mating in diverse cultural settings.