Modeling nonlinear dynamics of nuclear power generation in Slovakia: evidence from quantile-on-quantile and KRLS estimation
摘要
Understanding the drivers of nuclear power generation has become increasingly important in the context of Europe’s low-carbon transition. Existing studies largely rely on mean-based estimators and overlook asymmetric and regime-dependent dynamics. This study examines the nonlinear effects of load capacity factor, economic growth, and scientific and technical journal articles on nuclear power generation in Slovakia over the period 1996–2023. To capture distributional heterogeneity, the analysis employs a quantile-on-quantile regression framework, complemented by Kernel-based regularized least squares estimation. The results reveal substantial asymmetry across output regimes. Economic growth exerts a consistently positive impact, particularly at higher nuclear generation levels, although marginal responsiveness weakens at advanced income stages. The effect of LCF becomes positive in higher sustainability regimes, while innovation shows a conditional influence concentrated in lower quantiles. Overall, the results demonstrate that nuclear power generation in Slovakia is governed by asymmetric growth, sustainability, and innovation dynamics rather than uniform linear mechanisms. These findings provide important policy implications for energy transition strategies in small open European economies pursuing carbon-neutral objectives.