Navigating the future of digital banking: a foresight-based framework for institutional transformation in transitional economies—a case study of the iranian banking sector

Financial systems working in transitory and institutionally constrained situations are increasingly subject to strategic uncertainty. Traditional forecasting methodologies often fail to capture the interplay between technological change, regulatory systems, and geopolitical influences. This study develops and empirically implements a hybrid foresight framework based on the Futures Triangle to investigate prospective transformation routes for Iran’s banking system, operationalized through a transparent combination of qualitative synthesis and fuzzy-based prioritization. Rather than approaching the future as a predetermined outcome, the suggested model combines three analytically independent but interconnected forces: future-oriented goals, current systemic pressures, and historically established institutional limits. An iterative, multi-source synthesis of expert interviews, regulatory papers, and international foresight reports yielded a set of 60 transformation drivers, which were then selected using a fuzzy multi-criteria evaluation of importance, uncertainty, and rate of change. Based on the identified driver environment, the study generates three different future configurations: structural inertia, managed transition, and transformational leap. These possibilities are analyzed with respect to the technological capacity, regulatory flexibility, and institutional readiness of the Iranian banking sector. The analysis concludes with a staged strategic roadmap for 2030, outlining differentiated initiatives across technological, legal, organizational, and governance dimensions. Conceptually, the work expands the Futures Triangle by integrating it into a replicable decision-support architecture that enhances analytical transparency. It empirically demonstrates how foresight can be systematically operationalized in financial systems facing geopolitical, regulatory, and institutional restrictions. By establishing foresight as a strategic policy tool rather than merely a forecasting exercise, the study offers a transferable paradigm for regulators, banking institutions, and fintech actors seeking resilient and adaptive transformation routes.