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<p>Household demand for certified versus conventional tomatoes in Türkiye is shaped by economic and behavioural factors, yet the consumption effects of certification in emerging markets remain insufficiently understood. This study investigates the determinants of certified tomato consumption and evaluates how certification affects weekly consumption across household groups while accounting for observed and unobserved heterogeneity. Using nationally representative household survey data, an endogenous switching regression (ESR) model is employed to jointly estimate certification choice and tomato consumption and to correct for potential selection bias. Treatment effects on the treated (ATT), untreated (ATU), and population average (ATE) are calculated under observed and counterfactual scenarios, while marginal treatment effect (MTE) analysis examines variation along unobserved resistance to certification. The results reveal structural differences between certified and non-certified consumption regimes. Price negatively affects tomato consumption in both regimes, with stronger responsiveness among certified consumers. Income is the main determinant of certification choice, whereas most demographic and awareness variables have limited effects. Certification is associated with lower weekly tomato consumption for both adopters (ATT = − 0.142&#xa0;kg/week) and non-adopters (ATU = − 0.313&#xa0;kg/week), with an average effect of ATE = − 0.226&#xa0;kg/week. This negative effect should not be interpreted as welfare loss, but as evidence that certification encourages more selective consumption, likely through higher prices and perceived quality or food safety attributes. MTE results suggest some individual-specific variation, although unobserved heterogeneity is not statistically strong. The findings highlight the need for price-sensitive and voluntary certification strategies in Türkiye.</p>

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Measuring heterogeneity in certified and non-certified tomato demand in Türkiye using endogenous switching regression

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月2日

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  • Bülent Miran

摘要

Household demand for certified versus conventional tomatoes in Türkiye is shaped by economic and behavioural factors, yet the consumption effects of certification in emerging markets remain insufficiently understood. This study investigates the determinants of certified tomato consumption and evaluates how certification affects weekly consumption across household groups while accounting for observed and unobserved heterogeneity. Using nationally representative household survey data, an endogenous switching regression (ESR) model is employed to jointly estimate certification choice and tomato consumption and to correct for potential selection bias. Treatment effects on the treated (ATT), untreated (ATU), and population average (ATE) are calculated under observed and counterfactual scenarios, while marginal treatment effect (MTE) analysis examines variation along unobserved resistance to certification. The results reveal structural differences between certified and non-certified consumption regimes. Price negatively affects tomato consumption in both regimes, with stronger responsiveness among certified consumers. Income is the main determinant of certification choice, whereas most demographic and awareness variables have limited effects. Certification is associated with lower weekly tomato consumption for both adopters (ATT = − 0.142 kg/week) and non-adopters (ATU = − 0.313 kg/week), with an average effect of ATE = − 0.226 kg/week. This negative effect should not be interpreted as welfare loss, but as evidence that certification encourages more selective consumption, likely through higher prices and perceived quality or food safety attributes. MTE results suggest some individual-specific variation, although unobserved heterogeneity is not statistically strong. The findings highlight the need for price-sensitive and voluntary certification strategies in Türkiye.