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<p>This study examines the relative roles of European Union (EU) and World Trade Organization (WTO) integration in shaping bilateral trade among Western Balkan economies and Türkiye using a structural gravity framework. Employing fixed-effects OLS, normalized trade-intensity specifications, and multiplicative estimators (PPML and GPML), the analysis shows that institutional effects are sensitive to model specification. Joint WTO membership is strongly positive in volume-based fixed-effects models but weakens or becomes insignificant once trade is normalized by economic size or when GDP is explicitly controlled for in PPML estimations. In contrast, joint EU membership remains positive and statistically significant across all specifications, including normalized and size-controlled models. These results indicate that deeper regional integration under the EU framework is more consistently associated with trade integration than multilateral WTO membership, suggesting that institutional depth and enforceability play a central role in reducing trade costs.</p>

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Does EU integration matter more than WTO membership? Gravity evidence from the Western Balkans

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月20日

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  • Waed Abdeljalil,
  • Osman Gulseven

摘要

This study examines the relative roles of European Union (EU) and World Trade Organization (WTO) integration in shaping bilateral trade among Western Balkan economies and Türkiye using a structural gravity framework. Employing fixed-effects OLS, normalized trade-intensity specifications, and multiplicative estimators (PPML and GPML), the analysis shows that institutional effects are sensitive to model specification. Joint WTO membership is strongly positive in volume-based fixed-effects models but weakens or becomes insignificant once trade is normalized by economic size or when GDP is explicitly controlled for in PPML estimations. In contrast, joint EU membership remains positive and statistically significant across all specifications, including normalized and size-controlled models. These results indicate that deeper regional integration under the EU framework is more consistently associated with trade integration than multilateral WTO membership, suggesting that institutional depth and enforceability play a central role in reducing trade costs.