Scholarlink

<p>This paper examines why sustained monetary tightening can coexist with slow disinflation and persistent inflationary pressures. Focusing on a balanced Euro Area panel over 2001Q1–2024Q4, the analysis develops and tests a post-Keynesian explanation centered on administered pricing, endogenous mark-up setting, and distributional conflict. In contrast to demand-driven Phillips-curve interpretations, inflation is modeled as the outcome of cost propagation, profit-claim dynamics, and monetary policy operating through both demand and costs. Using a panel error-correction framework, the empirical results indicate that energy and import prices are the dominant correlates of inflation, while profit-share measures remain statistically relevant after controlling for costs. The policy interest rate plays a limited direct role in anchoring inflation in the long run. Moreover, a regime-based interaction shows that during sustained tightening cycles, policy-rate increases are associated with weaker disinflation dynamics and, in the short run, mildly inflationary effects once cost and mark-up channels are taken into account. These findings are interpreted as conditional associations consistent with administered pricing and distributional conflict, rather than as causal proof of a standalone cost channel. The results suggest that when inflation is predominantly cost- and conflict-driven, effective stabilization requires complementary policy tools beyond interest-rate hikes.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Monetary tightening without disinflation: a post-Keynesian account of cost-push pressures, mark-up dynamics, and conflict inflation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月21日

查看全文
  • Utku Altunöz

摘要

This paper examines why sustained monetary tightening can coexist with slow disinflation and persistent inflationary pressures. Focusing on a balanced Euro Area panel over 2001Q1–2024Q4, the analysis develops and tests a post-Keynesian explanation centered on administered pricing, endogenous mark-up setting, and distributional conflict. In contrast to demand-driven Phillips-curve interpretations, inflation is modeled as the outcome of cost propagation, profit-claim dynamics, and monetary policy operating through both demand and costs. Using a panel error-correction framework, the empirical results indicate that energy and import prices are the dominant correlates of inflation, while profit-share measures remain statistically relevant after controlling for costs. The policy interest rate plays a limited direct role in anchoring inflation in the long run. Moreover, a regime-based interaction shows that during sustained tightening cycles, policy-rate increases are associated with weaker disinflation dynamics and, in the short run, mildly inflationary effects once cost and mark-up channels are taken into account. These findings are interpreted as conditional associations consistent with administered pricing and distributional conflict, rather than as causal proof of a standalone cost channel. The results suggest that when inflation is predominantly cost- and conflict-driven, effective stabilization requires complementary policy tools beyond interest-rate hikes.