Beyond policy silos: unraveling the coordinated transmission of monetary, fiscal, and macroprudential policies
摘要
This study addresses a critical gap in the emerging market literature by examining the unified transmission mechanisms of monetary, fiscal, and macroprudential policies within a coordinated framework. Using monthly data from August 2011 to October 2023 and an ARDL bounds-testing approach with PCA, composite indices were constructed for monetary policy (MOI), fiscal policy (FPI), macroprudential policy (MPI), and a novel financial stability (FSI) index. The framework integrates New Keynesian dynamics, the financial accelerator mechanism, and policy coordination theory to evaluate policy efficacy across the real financial sector dimensions. The findings reveal a significant divergence in policy effectiveness. Contrary to conventional theory, monetary tightening anchors financial stability and fosters industrial production, yet exhibits a "price puzzle" with inflation. Macroprudential policy shows a "regulatory leakage" effect, destabilizing financial and industrial outcomes in the long term, despite short-term stabilizing activities. Fiscal policy drives industrial growth and unemployment reduction but is statistically neutral in terms of long-term financial stability. These divergences underscore that isolated policy measures may yield counterproductive outcomes, reinforcing the need for a dynamic and coordinated policy mix to balance financial resilience and the real sector’s performance.