<p>This study measures the response of Türkiye’s Ecological Footprint (EFP) to external shocks between 1971 and 2021. Other variables used to measure this response include per capita national income, economic globalization, renewable energy consumption, and inflation rate. An SVAR model was used for the analysis. The most important feature of this model is its ability to measure the past and present response of the dependent variable without making predictions. The findings were evaluated using variance decomposition and impulse-response results. According to the results, the EFP is most affected by per capita national income (GDP) in the first period, followed by the inflation rate. The smallest effect comes from the economic globalization index. The effect of renewable energy consumption in the first period decreases in subsequent periods. The methodological structure of the study is based on a long-term zero-constraint SVAR model. Accordingly, any shock can have zero effect on the dependent variable in the long term. This perspective may seem ironic when it comes to environmental degradation. However, objectively speaking, although each shock has a high impact on other variables in the initial periods, this effect decreases to almost zero in the long term. While the long-term effect on EFP may seem zero, EFP continues to increase due to various other factors.</p>

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Türkiye’s ecological footprint response to external shocks

  • Bilge Çipe,
  • Dilek Usanmaz

摘要

This study measures the response of Türkiye’s Ecological Footprint (EFP) to external shocks between 1971 and 2021. Other variables used to measure this response include per capita national income, economic globalization, renewable energy consumption, and inflation rate. An SVAR model was used for the analysis. The most important feature of this model is its ability to measure the past and present response of the dependent variable without making predictions. The findings were evaluated using variance decomposition and impulse-response results. According to the results, the EFP is most affected by per capita national income (GDP) in the first period, followed by the inflation rate. The smallest effect comes from the economic globalization index. The effect of renewable energy consumption in the first period decreases in subsequent periods. The methodological structure of the study is based on a long-term zero-constraint SVAR model. Accordingly, any shock can have zero effect on the dependent variable in the long term. This perspective may seem ironic when it comes to environmental degradation. However, objectively speaking, although each shock has a high impact on other variables in the initial periods, this effect decreases to almost zero in the long term. While the long-term effect on EFP may seem zero, EFP continues to increase due to various other factors.