Economic interdependence and trade diversification in Kazakhstan: a dyadic-level analysis
摘要
This study investigates the structure of Kazakhstan’s external trade through the lens of economic interdependence and trade diversification. Drawing on bilateral trade data from 2000 to 2023, it introduces an analytical framework that treats interdependence-measured through Salience, Symmetry, and Interdependence indices—as a standalone concept, decoupled from liberal peace theory. Complementing this approach with Herfindahl–Hirschman and Theil concentration indices, the paper evaluates Kazakhstan’s trade diversification across partners and products. Results reveal a highly asymmetric and concentrated export structure centered on a few raw commodities, alongside a more diversified import portfolio. Despite trading with numerous partners, Kazakhstan’s bilateral trade relationships are characterized by low salience and interdependence, with only a few countries—chiefly Russia, China, and regional neighbors—showing persistent strategic relevance. Statistical analysis confirms significant negative associations between interdependence and trade concentration, highlighting the fragility of Kazakhstan’s trade diversification strategy.