Scholarlink

<p>The National Target Program on New Rural Development (NRD) is a vital national program in Vietnam, initiated in 2009 to address rural infrastructure, livelihood, income, and cultural challenges. Despite notable achievements during 2011–2020, challenges in policy coherence, sustainable development, and income disparities persist, especially in mountainous and border regions. This study introduces a novel application of Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modeling to NRD evaluation, offering a data-driven approach that captures complex causal relationships not addressed in previous studies. Additionally, the study aims to create a predictive model and propose solutions for the program’s outcomes during the 2021–2025 period, with a vision toward 2030. Gathering data from 60 communes in Hoa Binh province, the research identified ten key factors significantly affecting the success of the NRD, ranked in the following order of importance: (1) Support from NGOs/Enterprises; (2) Commune under Program 135; (3) Poverty rate before 2011; (4) OCOP Program; (5) Total public investment; (6) Agricultural area; (7) Distance to district center; (8) Forest area; (9) Key planning area; (10) Public services in agriculture. The research results will provide valuable references and applications for policymakers, consultants, and policy planners in the process of developing and adjusting new rural development policies in Hoa Binh province in particular and nationwide in general.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Determinants of success in Vietnam’s national target program on new rural development: a Bayesian belief network analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月13日

查看全文
  • Hai Dinh Le,
  • Luong Thi Khanh Ly,
  • Vu Minh Hoang,
  • Dao Duy Tan,
  • Nguyen Thi Mai Huong,
  • Mai Thi Lan Huong

摘要

The National Target Program on New Rural Development (NRD) is a vital national program in Vietnam, initiated in 2009 to address rural infrastructure, livelihood, income, and cultural challenges. Despite notable achievements during 2011–2020, challenges in policy coherence, sustainable development, and income disparities persist, especially in mountainous and border regions. This study introduces a novel application of Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) modeling to NRD evaluation, offering a data-driven approach that captures complex causal relationships not addressed in previous studies. Additionally, the study aims to create a predictive model and propose solutions for the program’s outcomes during the 2021–2025 period, with a vision toward 2030. Gathering data from 60 communes in Hoa Binh province, the research identified ten key factors significantly affecting the success of the NRD, ranked in the following order of importance: (1) Support from NGOs/Enterprises; (2) Commune under Program 135; (3) Poverty rate before 2011; (4) OCOP Program; (5) Total public investment; (6) Agricultural area; (7) Distance to district center; (8) Forest area; (9) Key planning area; (10) Public services in agriculture. The research results will provide valuable references and applications for policymakers, consultants, and policy planners in the process of developing and adjusting new rural development policies in Hoa Binh province in particular and nationwide in general.