G7 financial resilience: the time-varying effects of volatility in global oil prices, economic policy, and geopolitical uncertainty
摘要
The overall financial stability of G7 economies is crucial for global economic resilience but it is being negatively impacted by continuous fluctuations in oil prices, heightened geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in economic policies. Literature on this topic largely assesses these risks in isolation or for single national markets with limited evidence on their time-varying joint effects on overall financial stress across G7 economies during significant global crises. To examine the time-varying joint effects of global oil price volatility (GOPcy), global geopolitical risk (GGPR), and global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) on financial stress we apply a Time-Varying Parameter Structural Vector Autoregressive Model with Stochastic Volatility (TVP-SVAR-SV) to assess monthly data from December 2005 to May 2023. Oil price volatility, geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty are treated as exogenous shocks to the Financial Stress Index (FSI) for each G7 economy. The results indicate that increased oil price volatility, geopolitical risk, and policy uncertainty increase financial stress across the G7, but with different effects. France shows the strongest resistance, while Italy is the most exposed to geopolitical shocks and Japan to policy uncertainty. Oil price volatility has a strong impact on financial stress levels in the USA, UK, Germany, and Italy, and these effects were significantly present during the COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine crises. The implications of these results underlie the need for differentiated and coordinated risk management solutions. Increasing strategic reserves of oil, hedging against political risks, and improving macro prudent coordination can reduce cross-border financial vulnerabilities.