Scholarlink

<p>In the face of rapid urban growth and persistent insecurity, Nigeria presents a puzzle as to whether urbanisation is driven by economic opportunity or vulnerability. This study investigates the pattern of urbanisation in Nigeria and the extent to which it is shaped by prosperity or insecurity. Using data from 1991 to 2020, the analysis assesses the relative influence of economic growth and insecurity on urban growth, while accounting for structural, demographic, and environmental factors such as agricultural labour productivity, unemployment, population growth, and rainfall anomalies. By integrating econometric and machine learning techniques, namely autoregressive distributed lag, kernel regularised least squares, and random forests, the study uncovers a striking paradox. Economic growth is consistently negatively associated with urbanisation, whereas insecurity emerges as a robust non-economic driver, underpinning a push-driven form of urbanisation revealed by non-linear models. Agricultural labour productivity and unemployment facilitate rural–urban mobility, rainfall anomalies act as environmental push factors, and population growth proves relevant primarily under non-linear specifications. The findings of this paper suggest that displacement, rather than inclusive development, is becoming a dominant force shaping urbanisation, with important implications for advancing sustainable cities (SDG 11), decent work and growth (SDG 8), and peace and strong institutions (SDG 16).</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Is urban growth conflict-induced or economically motivated? An assessment of economic and non-economic drivers of urbanisation in Nigeria

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月6日

查看全文
  • Joel Tobiloba Adeyemo,
  • Olujide Adelana Olakanmi

摘要

In the face of rapid urban growth and persistent insecurity, Nigeria presents a puzzle as to whether urbanisation is driven by economic opportunity or vulnerability. This study investigates the pattern of urbanisation in Nigeria and the extent to which it is shaped by prosperity or insecurity. Using data from 1991 to 2020, the analysis assesses the relative influence of economic growth and insecurity on urban growth, while accounting for structural, demographic, and environmental factors such as agricultural labour productivity, unemployment, population growth, and rainfall anomalies. By integrating econometric and machine learning techniques, namely autoregressive distributed lag, kernel regularised least squares, and random forests, the study uncovers a striking paradox. Economic growth is consistently negatively associated with urbanisation, whereas insecurity emerges as a robust non-economic driver, underpinning a push-driven form of urbanisation revealed by non-linear models. Agricultural labour productivity and unemployment facilitate rural–urban mobility, rainfall anomalies act as environmental push factors, and population growth proves relevant primarily under non-linear specifications. The findings of this paper suggest that displacement, rather than inclusive development, is becoming a dominant force shaping urbanisation, with important implications for advancing sustainable cities (SDG 11), decent work and growth (SDG 8), and peace and strong institutions (SDG 16).