Deconstructing behavioral complexity: analyzing interconnected heuristic biases in investment choices
摘要
Individual investors’ stock investment decisions are largely shaped by heuristic biases, often resulting in less-than-optimal choices. This study seeks to identify, classify, and analyze the hierarchical relationships among these biases that influence higher education institution employees’ stock selection. This research utilizes the fuzzy interpretive structural modeling (F-ISM) method to establish a hierarchical structure of interrelationships among the identified factors in which lower levels consist of independent variables that influence the dependent variables at the top. Additionally, Fuzzy-MICMAC analysis is applied to categorize these factors into autonomous, dependent, linkage, and independent groups on the basis of crisp value of driving and dependence power. 19 sub-biases are identified which is categorized under 5 main heuristic bias. Further, availability and representativeness biases are identified as key driving factors in investment decisions, as they influence other biases like anchoring, overconfidence, and gambler’s fallacy, which are dependent and appear higher in the structure. In which Base rate neglect, stereotyping, forecast anchoring, and familiarity bias are key drivers appearing lower in the structure and comes in forth quadrant (Independent factors). This study distinctly highlighted prominent heuristic sub-biases through hierarchical structure, along with that it provides stock investors with valuable insights into heuristic biases, enabling them to make more informed and logical investment choices.