<p>This study investigates the determinants of public debt in 37 African economies from 1990 to 2022, focusing on the roles of government effectiveness, control of corruption, inflation, official exchange rate, trade openness, debt burden, economic growth, urban population, and air pollution. Using AMG and DCCE estimators, the findings reveal several country-specific relationships. Government effectiveness reduces public debt in the Central African Republic, while corruption control has a debt-reducing effect in Botswana and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The exchange rate exerts a positive influence on public debt in Rwanda, Niger, Kenya, Gabon, Egypt, Chad, the Central African Republic, and Burkina Faso, but a negative influence in Botswana. Carbon emissions are positively associated with public debt in Guinea, Niger, and the overall panel, whereas the relationship is negative in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Economic growth is negatively correlated with public debt in Botswana, the Central African Republic, the Congo, Egypt, Morocco, Niger, Rwanda, Sudan, and the overall panel. The results highlight the need for country-specific, evidence-based policy measures to ensure effective debt management and long-term fiscal sustainability. Promoting economic growth through investment in productive sectors can enhance revenue generation, lessen dependence on borrowing, and mitigate fiscal stress from excessive debt accumulation. Future research should investigate the threshold levels of economic growth and inflation necessary to achieve substantial reductions in public debt across African economies.</p>

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Public debt dynamics in Africa: assessing the roles of macroeconomic, demographic, institutional, and environmental determinants

  • Erick Okoth,
  • Fuat Sekmen

摘要

This study investigates the determinants of public debt in 37 African economies from 1990 to 2022, focusing on the roles of government effectiveness, control of corruption, inflation, official exchange rate, trade openness, debt burden, economic growth, urban population, and air pollution. Using AMG and DCCE estimators, the findings reveal several country-specific relationships. Government effectiveness reduces public debt in the Central African Republic, while corruption control has a debt-reducing effect in Botswana and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The exchange rate exerts a positive influence on public debt in Rwanda, Niger, Kenya, Gabon, Egypt, Chad, the Central African Republic, and Burkina Faso, but a negative influence in Botswana. Carbon emissions are positively associated with public debt in Guinea, Niger, and the overall panel, whereas the relationship is negative in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Economic growth is negatively correlated with public debt in Botswana, the Central African Republic, the Congo, Egypt, Morocco, Niger, Rwanda, Sudan, and the overall panel. The results highlight the need for country-specific, evidence-based policy measures to ensure effective debt management and long-term fiscal sustainability. Promoting economic growth through investment in productive sectors can enhance revenue generation, lessen dependence on borrowing, and mitigate fiscal stress from excessive debt accumulation. Future research should investigate the threshold levels of economic growth and inflation necessary to achieve substantial reductions in public debt across African economies.