Testing the modeling relevance for growth, inflation, and unemployment: analysis using VAR, ARDL, and DOLS
摘要
Managing inflation and unemployment is challenging in Bangladesh, due to their opposing effects on the economy. So, this study aims to examine the dynamic interrelationship between inflation, unemployment, and economic growth in Bangladesh by utilizing annual time series data from 1981 to 2024, we employ three econometric models, Vector Autoregressive (VAR), and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to investigate both the long-run and short-run linkages among key macroeconomic variables. Initially, VAR and ARDL models are applied to assess the relationship between inflation, unemployment, and growth in isolation. Subsequently, ARDL regressions are employed for three distinct models, growth, inflation, and unemployment, by incorporating additional macroeconomic control variables including inflation, unemployment, government expenditure, private capital formation, money supply, foreign direct investment, and governance indicators. Our findings reveal a positive long-run relationship between inflation, unemployment, and economic growth, challenging traditional theories such as Okun’s Law while confirming the relevance of the Phillips Curve in the Bangladeshi context. The results also emphasize the differentiated impacts of public expenditure and private investment on growth and inflation, highlighting the role of fiscal quality and investment allocation in macroeconomic management. Robustness checks using Dynamic OLS validate our ARDL findings. The study offers practical policy implications for balancing growth, inflation, and employment, emphasizing the importance of sound governance, strategic fiscal interventions, and sector-specific investment to ensure macroeconomic stability and support Bangladesh’s sustainable development.