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<p>The fluctuation in food prices underscores the critical need for continuous monitoring, as rising costs disproportionately affect vulnerable households, deepening poverty and limiting access to adequate nutrition. Ensuring consistent availability of safe and nutritious food is essential for achieving food security. This study analyzes the average prices of rice and beans in Nigeria from January 2017 to December 2023. Using data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) tests were used to assess stationarity. The data achieved stationarity at the second difference. ARIMA (3,2,0) was selected for rice and ARIMA (0,2,1) for beans. Forecasts from January 2024 to December 2025 suggest a steady increase in prices, indicating rising inflation and potential food insecurity. The study provides important implications for food policy planning in Nigeria.</p>

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Predicting the average price of some selected food items in Nigeria using time series analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月20日

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  • T. O. Olatayo,
  • T. J. Adejumo,
  • Y. A. Rasaki,
  • T. A. Lasisi,
  • W. A. Abdulrouf

摘要

The fluctuation in food prices underscores the critical need for continuous monitoring, as rising costs disproportionately affect vulnerable households, deepening poverty and limiting access to adequate nutrition. Ensuring consistent availability of safe and nutritious food is essential for achieving food security. This study analyzes the average prices of rice and beans in Nigeria from January 2017 to December 2023. Using data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) tests were used to assess stationarity. The data achieved stationarity at the second difference. ARIMA (3,2,0) was selected for rice and ARIMA (0,2,1) for beans. Forecasts from January 2024 to December 2025 suggest a steady increase in prices, indicating rising inflation and potential food insecurity. The study provides important implications for food policy planning in Nigeria.