Moderating the role of globalization and socioeconomic development in total fertility rate decline in India
摘要
The total fertility rate (TFR) in India has recently dropped below the replacement level (2.01 in 2022). Although numerous studies have explored proximate determinants of fertility rate in India at micro, district, state, and regional levels, there is a lack of macro-level studies. The findings of the existing studies are inconclusive, making it challenging to compare India’s fertility trajectory with international levels. Notably, the role of globalization in fertility transition has not been assessed. Against this backdrop, this study explores the impact of globalization in general and its economic, social, and political dimensions associated with selective socioeconomic variables on the TFR in India for the last three decades. The results of the quantitative analysis indicate that globalization in general and its economic and social dimensions are instrumental to the decline of the TFR in the long run. Educational attainment is another key factor in reducing TFR, especially in the long run, while the role of income and female labour force participation is not robust. Population growth has a long-term positive effect on TFR. Urbanization of the Indian economy helps to decline the TFR. The findings are unique as the impact of globalization on TFR is exposed for the first time in India, and these findings have significant implications for economic and social policy manifestation.