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<p>Using the theories of General Strain and the Economics of Crime as intermediating mechanisms, I examine whether the 2008 economic recession had any effect on the individual feeling of safety, both short and long term. I use data gathered from 10 countries during 10 rounds of the European Social Survey, from 2002 to 2020/21 (<i>N</i> = 139741). I apply Interrupted Time Series ordered logit regression models with the gologit2 user-written command for Stata. Results indicate that long-term, there was no adverse effect amongst all the participants in the utilized sample. Short-term however, by 2010, the feeling of safety diminished in those that felt the most secure just before the crisis. Dividing the sample into smaller groups, short-term negative effects were observed in four countries (Switzerland, Hungary, Norway, Portugal), and long-term negative effects in Britain and Ireland. In addition, I found short-term negative effects in groups of individuals who had outlier preferences and personal characteristics. Those were people that trusted the legal system and the police the least, their self- reported happiness level was low, had very conservative political views, had little education and reported having difficulties in coping with their current income.</p>

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The 2008 economic recession and the feeling of safety: is anyone still afraid of walking outdoors after dark?

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月9日

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  • Takis Venetoklis

摘要

Using the theories of General Strain and the Economics of Crime as intermediating mechanisms, I examine whether the 2008 economic recession had any effect on the individual feeling of safety, both short and long term. I use data gathered from 10 countries during 10 rounds of the European Social Survey, from 2002 to 2020/21 (N = 139741). I apply Interrupted Time Series ordered logit regression models with the gologit2 user-written command for Stata. Results indicate that long-term, there was no adverse effect amongst all the participants in the utilized sample. Short-term however, by 2010, the feeling of safety diminished in those that felt the most secure just before the crisis. Dividing the sample into smaller groups, short-term negative effects were observed in four countries (Switzerland, Hungary, Norway, Portugal), and long-term negative effects in Britain and Ireland. In addition, I found short-term negative effects in groups of individuals who had outlier preferences and personal characteristics. Those were people that trusted the legal system and the police the least, their self- reported happiness level was low, had very conservative political views, had little education and reported having difficulties in coping with their current income.