Macroeconomic effects of sugar-sweetened beverages taxation: simulations in a computable general equilibrium model for Brazil

The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) is increasing worldwide, especially in developing countries. Beyond the potential health outcomes of SSB taxation, its economic effects must be examined. This article aims to analyze the wide-economy impacts of SSB tax in Brazil in the short- and long-term. We used a national dynamic computable general equilibrium model calibrated for the Brazilian economy, using data from the 2015 input–output matrix released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The model evaluates the effects on macroeconomic indicators of production, employment, household consumption, prices and tax revenue from 2023 to 2032. We analyzed four scenarios, considering different levels and schemes of taxation. In the short term, we observe a decrease in SSB consumption and negative macroeconomic impacts when government spending remains unchanged. However, redirecting the tax revenue towards public health expenditure mitigates these negative effects while maintaining similar outcomes for the SSB industry.