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<p>I document declining trust in the Executive and Legislative branches of the US federal government from 1972 onwards. Data are from General Social Survey questions asking whether respondents “have a great deal”, “only some,” or “hardly any” confidence “in those running these institutions”. Net confidence (percentage difference between “great deal” and “hardly any”) in the two branches has declined continually from nearly zero in the early 1970s, accelerating substantially from the 1990s on. Different processes drive this decline for each branch. Partisan and ideological opponents of the President increasingly distrust the incumbent while supporters are roughly neutral. Trust in the US Congress has been eroding more uniformly across all parties and ideologies. In recent years net confidence has been around -30 for the Executive and -45 for Congress. This profound distrust (10 times as many have hardly any v a great deal of confidence in Congress) is widely shared across main socio-demographics, such as age, gender, income, etc., though the decline is steeper for older and white respondents. The decline is also greater than for other institutions, including until recently the third branch (Supreme Court). I close by discussing implications for research in public choice.</p>

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The long decline of trust in democratic institutions

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月28日

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  • Sam Peltzman

摘要

I document declining trust in the Executive and Legislative branches of the US federal government from 1972 onwards. Data are from General Social Survey questions asking whether respondents “have a great deal”, “only some,” or “hardly any” confidence “in those running these institutions”. Net confidence (percentage difference between “great deal” and “hardly any”) in the two branches has declined continually from nearly zero in the early 1970s, accelerating substantially from the 1990s on. Different processes drive this decline for each branch. Partisan and ideological opponents of the President increasingly distrust the incumbent while supporters are roughly neutral. Trust in the US Congress has been eroding more uniformly across all parties and ideologies. In recent years net confidence has been around -30 for the Executive and -45 for Congress. This profound distrust (10 times as many have hardly any v a great deal of confidence in Congress) is widely shared across main socio-demographics, such as age, gender, income, etc., though the decline is steeper for older and white respondents. The decline is also greater than for other institutions, including until recently the third branch (Supreme Court). I close by discussing implications for research in public choice.