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<p>This paper examines how democracy affects conflict levels using a new event-level dataset constructed from the <i>New York Times</i> archives, covering 176 countries from 1945 to 2018, which captures a broader spectrum of conflict events than previously used datasets. Using panel regressions with extensive controls and an instrumental variable strategy based on regional democratization waves, we find that democracy reduces conflict. The estimated effect is robust across alternative measures and model specifications. Mechanism analyses indicate that democracy alleviates social grievances and limits opportunities for confrontation. Further analyses show that democracy consistently suppresses conflict across conflict types. Finally, democratic stability sustains peace but backsliding increases conflict risk. These findings underscore the stabilizing function of democratic institutions.</p>

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Democracy and conflict: evidence from the New York Times

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月22日

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  • Jianwei Feng,
  • Ping Zhang

摘要

This paper examines how democracy affects conflict levels using a new event-level dataset constructed from the New York Times archives, covering 176 countries from 1945 to 2018, which captures a broader spectrum of conflict events than previously used datasets. Using panel regressions with extensive controls and an instrumental variable strategy based on regional democratization waves, we find that democracy reduces conflict. The estimated effect is robust across alternative measures and model specifications. Mechanism analyses indicate that democracy alleviates social grievances and limits opportunities for confrontation. Further analyses show that democracy consistently suppresses conflict across conflict types. Finally, democratic stability sustains peace but backsliding increases conflict risk. These findings underscore the stabilizing function of democratic institutions.