Compulsory military service and opinions toward cross-strait relations: evidence from Taiwan’s 2013 military reform
摘要
This study examines how Taiwan’s military policy has affected young Taiwanese men’s attitudes toward cross-strait relations. In 2013, the Taiwanese government reduced the compulsory military service period from one year to four months. Taiwanese men born before January 1, 1994 must undergo one year of military service, while those born after that date have only four months of compulsory military duty. Using comprehensive survey data and a regression discontinuity design, I find that Taiwanese men exposed to less military service are more likely to identify as Taiwanese and support Taiwan’s independence. The reform also changed people’s voting behaviors: In the 2020 presidential election, men who underwent four months of military service tended to vote for pro-independence candidates. These findings can be explained by people’s expectations regarding the potential for war between Taiwan and China.