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<p>This paper studies the influence of exogenous economic conditions on electoral outcomes, particularly within the challenging context where voters face difficulty discerning information about the incumbent politician amidst the economic landscape. Despite a scenario where voters theoretically possess the means to separate the politician’s actions from strictly exogenous conditions, our study reveals a tendency for voters to base decisions on these external economic shocks. Focusing on Brazilians residing abroad during the 2010 and 2014 presidential elections, our empirical analysis uncovers that expatriate Brazilians exhibited a greater likelihood of supporting the incumbent candidate when experiencing improved economic conditions in their host countries. To shed light on this intricate relationship between economic conditions and voting choices, we develop a theoretical model that incorporates behavioral elements, offering nuanced insights into electoral decision-making.</p>

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Economic conditions and voting behavior

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月30日

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  • Fernando Barros Jr.,
  • Gustavo Correa-da-Silva,
  • Valdemar Pinho Neto,
  • Victor Rangel

摘要

This paper studies the influence of exogenous economic conditions on electoral outcomes, particularly within the challenging context where voters face difficulty discerning information about the incumbent politician amidst the economic landscape. Despite a scenario where voters theoretically possess the means to separate the politician’s actions from strictly exogenous conditions, our study reveals a tendency for voters to base decisions on these external economic shocks. Focusing on Brazilians residing abroad during the 2010 and 2014 presidential elections, our empirical analysis uncovers that expatriate Brazilians exhibited a greater likelihood of supporting the incumbent candidate when experiencing improved economic conditions in their host countries. To shed light on this intricate relationship between economic conditions and voting choices, we develop a theoretical model that incorporates behavioral elements, offering nuanced insights into electoral decision-making.