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<p>Why do some protests succeed at obtaining accommodation but other protests are repressed? The content of demands varies widely across protest events although prior research has not accounted for how the demands of protest movements influence outcomes. We construct a theoretical model to study how different types of protest demands impact whether a dictator accommodates or represses. The model explains that income levels of protesters influence the content of their demands, which in turn affect protest mobilization and effectiveness. Lower income classes join economic protests that dictators more often accommodate, but higher income classes join political protests that dictators tend to repress. The model also shows that dictators may be unable to deter limited protests from becoming mass mobilization events, even when there is no uncertainty in the strategic environment. We discuss how the argument explains patterns of protest and repression with illustrative cases across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.</p>

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Political and economic protests in authoritarian regimes

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月6日

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  • Austin M. Mitchell,
  • Kana Inata,
  • Masaaki Higashijima

摘要

Why do some protests succeed at obtaining accommodation but other protests are repressed? The content of demands varies widely across protest events although prior research has not accounted for how the demands of protest movements influence outcomes. We construct a theoretical model to study how different types of protest demands impact whether a dictator accommodates or represses. The model explains that income levels of protesters influence the content of their demands, which in turn affect protest mobilization and effectiveness. Lower income classes join economic protests that dictators more often accommodate, but higher income classes join political protests that dictators tend to repress. The model also shows that dictators may be unable to deter limited protests from becoming mass mobilization events, even when there is no uncertainty in the strategic environment. We discuss how the argument explains patterns of protest and repression with illustrative cases across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.