Purpose <p>As sensing technology and spatial data analysis become more accessible and advanced, nitrogen management is shifting from reliance on traditional soil sampling to the use of remotely sensed imagery and yield maps. While studies often compare variable rate nitrogen (VRN) fertilization to uniform rates, the profitability of information sources guiding VRN recommendations remains unclear. This study fills that gap by investigating the <i>ex post</i> profitability of variable rate nitrogen prescriptions derived from different sources of information.</p> Method <p>Utilizing 17 field-years of data from 13 Midwest fields during 2021–2023, we compared nitrogen prescriptions based on early season vegetative vigor to ones based on yield history. We developed a quasi-experimental design to mitigate non-random treatment assignment and employed complementary analytical methods– spatial linear regression and spatial discontinuity analysis, which were designed to be easily expandable and replicable.</p> Results <p>Our finding revealed a heterogeneous treatment effect, with estimated profitability ranging from $-410 ha⁻¹ to $350 ha⁻¹ for prescriptions based on remote sensing data compared to yield history. In 2021, when unusually favorable weather conditions continued throughout the season, in-season NDVI information proved to be more profitable. In contrast, in 2023, yield history-based prescriptions were more profitable, as early season weather patterns failed to persist.</p> Conclusion <p>Given the way that seasonal moisture availability enables N uptake and crop yield response, these findings highlight the profitability of adapting VRN management to seasonal weather variability by supplementing long-term yield response information from yield history with early season crop vigor from NDVI. The two information sources complement one another, depending on whether early season growing conditions persist until grain fill is complete.</p>