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<p>This essay provides an introduction to the field of travel forecasting from a historical perspective. Drawing on the book by Boyce and Williams (Forecasting urban travel: past, present and future. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, 2015), I first recount the field’s three developmental phases, from inception to maturation. I then summarize significant innovations in model development, organized under four key themes: equilibrium, integration, behavioral realism and physical realism. This is followed by a general critique of the field that addresses several unresolved challenges, including issues of falsifiability, credulous assumptions, undue complexity, and politics.</p>

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A brief history of travel forecasting

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月3日

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  • Marco Nie

摘要

This essay provides an introduction to the field of travel forecasting from a historical perspective. Drawing on the book by Boyce and Williams (Forecasting urban travel: past, present and future. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, 2015), I first recount the field’s three developmental phases, from inception to maturation. I then summarize significant innovations in model development, organized under four key themes: equilibrium, integration, behavioral realism and physical realism. This is followed by a general critique of the field that addresses several unresolved challenges, including issues of falsifiability, credulous assumptions, undue complexity, and politics.