Assessing the evolution of Public Transportation demand over time based on real data through survival analysis in Bologna, Italy

Public Transportation (PT) is a universal service in most countries, and it is acknowledged for its social and environmental role in enhancing accessibility and promoting a sustainable transport system. However, when disruptions alter the service, the level of service (LoS) can be massively affected. Consequently, the perceived quality can be influenced, and users can be encouraged (or forced) to modify their subsequent modal choice, in accordance with the users’ socioeconomic profile. A survival analysis, namely a Cox proportional hazards model, was tested in Bologna, Italy, using real data provided by TPER S.p.A, specifically Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) and Automatic Passenger Counter (APC). This analysis aimed to assess the variations in demand over time taking into account variables related to the socioeconomic characteristics of the demand and several service attributes. The results contribute to the literature in several ways. Firstly, they confirm the predominant role of PT in the modal alternative spectrum of disadvantaged users. Secondly, they provide insights into the perception of quality service among different user categories, including commuters and non-frequent users.