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<p>This study compares employment trends in the United States, Canada, and Mexico from 2018 to 2024 using harmonized indicators from the United States Current Population Survey, Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey, and Mexico’s ENOE, supplemented with OECD/World Bank contextual measures. Grounded in labor market, institutional, and human capital theories, I combine descriptive trend analysis, time-series comparisons, ANOVA/t-tests, and multivariate regressions to assess cross-national differences in recovery, sectoral change, and demographic gradients. Employment fell sharply in 2020 across all three countries, but recovery diverged: by 2024 the United States (61.2%) and Canada (62.0%) surpassed pre-pandemic levels, while Mexico recovered more slowly to 59.0%. Sectoral patterns also differed, with stronger growth in technology-intensive employment in the United States (+ 15%) and Canada (+ 12%) than in Mexico (+ 4%), alongside Mexico’s continued reliance on manufacturing. Demographic disparities were most pronounced in Mexico, including a larger prime-age gender gap (women 61.0% vs. men 85.1%) and steeper education–employment gradients. Findings underscore how institutional capacity, informality, and human capital investment condition labor-market resilience in an integrated North American economy. Results are associative rather than causal and motivate future work extending the series beyond 2024 and incorporating qualitative evidence on institutional mechanisms. Policy implications include strengthening formalization, skills pipelines, and shock-responsive supports.</p>

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Brief Report: Comparative Analysis of Employment Trends in the United States, Canada, and Mexico

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月17日

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  • Jeremy Bennett

摘要

This study compares employment trends in the United States, Canada, and Mexico from 2018 to 2024 using harmonized indicators from the United States Current Population Survey, Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey, and Mexico’s ENOE, supplemented with OECD/World Bank contextual measures. Grounded in labor market, institutional, and human capital theories, I combine descriptive trend analysis, time-series comparisons, ANOVA/t-tests, and multivariate regressions to assess cross-national differences in recovery, sectoral change, and demographic gradients. Employment fell sharply in 2020 across all three countries, but recovery diverged: by 2024 the United States (61.2%) and Canada (62.0%) surpassed pre-pandemic levels, while Mexico recovered more slowly to 59.0%. Sectoral patterns also differed, with stronger growth in technology-intensive employment in the United States (+ 15%) and Canada (+ 12%) than in Mexico (+ 4%), alongside Mexico’s continued reliance on manufacturing. Demographic disparities were most pronounced in Mexico, including a larger prime-age gender gap (women 61.0% vs. men 85.1%) and steeper education–employment gradients. Findings underscore how institutional capacity, informality, and human capital investment condition labor-market resilience in an integrated North American economy. Results are associative rather than causal and motivate future work extending the series beyond 2024 and incorporating qualitative evidence on institutional mechanisms. Policy implications include strengthening formalization, skills pipelines, and shock-responsive supports.