Scholarlink

<p>This paper shows how measures of uncertainty can be applied to existing subnational population forecasts using the 107 counties that make up West Texas as a case study. The measures of forecast uncertainty are relatively easy to calculate and meet several important criteria routinely applied by state and local demographers. We also report the results of two independent comparisons supporting the argument that our approach is valid. The paper concludes it is well-suited for developing probabilistic population forecasts in the United States and elsewhere.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

A New Approach to Probabilistic County Population Forecasting with an Example Application to West Texas

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月20日

查看全文
  • David A. Swanson,
  • Jeff Tayman,
  • Mike Cline

摘要

This paper shows how measures of uncertainty can be applied to existing subnational population forecasts using the 107 counties that make up West Texas as a case study. The measures of forecast uncertainty are relatively easy to calculate and meet several important criteria routinely applied by state and local demographers. We also report the results of two independent comparisons supporting the argument that our approach is valid. The paper concludes it is well-suited for developing probabilistic population forecasts in the United States and elsewhere.