Brexit and Fertility Implications in the UK and Europe: A Regional DID and Panel Event Study Analysis

Period fertility rates usually subside in precarious times. The United Kingdom’s (UK) decision to leave the European Union (EU) may be seen as a typical example of a policy choice that creates uncertainty. Did Brexit-related uncertainty influence fertility rates in the UK? With regional data at the Nuts 3 level from Eurostat, we apply Difference-In-Difference (DID) and panel time event regression analysis to answer this query. The obtained estimates suggest that the Leave decision significantly reduced regional total fertility rates in the UK in the short run. We also noted a negative effect on fertility in the post-referendum period across both UK and non-UK European regions. Our findings may be a piece of the puzzle regarding the prolonged fertility decline observed in many developed nations during the 2010s.