Towards a More Accurate Count: Identifying State-Level Predictors of the Undercount of Young Hispanic Children in the 2010 and 2020 U.S. Censuses

Even though young Hispanic children have experienced a high net undercount in the past three U.S. Censuses, we know very little about what explains the undercount. We examine how every state experienced the undercount in 2010 and 2020. We also investigate the association of state-level factors grouped into six domains—racial/ethnic and immigrant composition; political affiliation and immigrant policy climate; housing; family structure and living arrangements; socioeconomic status; and census response/return rates—with the net coverage rate of Hispanic children under age five in the 2010 and 2020 Census. We find that the number of states undercounting young Hispanics increased in one decade, and the undercount worsened in three-fifths of states. We also find that racial/ethnic and immigrant composition, housing, and children’s living arrangements have the strongest associations with the undercount of young Hispanic children in both censuses. The size of states’ Hispanic, foreign-born, and noncitizen populations was positively associated with the 2020 undercount, particularly in states where these groups account for a small proportion of the population. However, the association flattened as the proportion of these groups increased. States with smaller shares of these populations tended to have the most restrictive immigration policies in 2020. Housing characteristics and children’s living arrangements consistently influenced the undercount in both censuses. Lastly, language barriers contributed to the 2020 undercount of young Hispanic children. By identifying factors related to higher undercounts of young Hispanic children, this study builds a knowledge base that could result in a more accurate count of young children in the 2030 Census.