Perceptions of the Size of the Foreign-Born Population: Do Changes in Multicultural Policies Shape Beliefs?

Research has linked individual estimations of the size of the foreign-born population to attitudes about immigration. However, most studies focus on the accuracy of estimations rather than on perceptions of group size, even though perceptions on their own are an important predictor of attitudes. Studies examining the determinants of the perceptions of foreign-born population size emphasize individual-level factors and overlook the role of national-level contexts, such as policy changes. Changes in multicultural policies may contribute to various cognitive biases that inform how individuals perceive the size of the foreign-born population. In this study, we examine the association between changes in multiculturalist policies and individuals’ quantitative perceptions of the foreign-born population size in 14 European countries, using the 2002 and 2014 waves of data from the European Social Survey (ESS). Results from fixed effects models show a positive association between multicultural policies and estimates of the foreign-born population, net of individual-level measures and the actual size of the foreign-born population.