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<p>Studies have shown that birth outcomes are negatively affected by natural disasters, which are a significant source of stress and fear. This dynamic suggests that a smaller number of newborns may be observed nine months after such events. We investigated this topic, focusing on the Pohang earthquake that occurred on November 15, 2017, in South Korea. For our analysis, we examined birth rates at the city level, using birth registry data from all 1.2&#xa0;million live births that occurred exclusively between May and December from 2014 to 2018. We aimed to minimize bias by using a difference-in-differences estimation method, based on the distance from the epicenter. Our regression results indicate an 8% decrease in birth rates nine months after the earthquake and an 11% decrease ten months post-earthquake within 0–30&#xa0;km of the epicenter. In cities located 30–90&#xa0;km from the epicenter, a 7% reduction in birth rates was observed ten months after the event.</p>

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Do stressful events affect pregnancy intentions? Evidence from a mild earthquake

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月4日

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  • Hyunkuk Cho

摘要

Studies have shown that birth outcomes are negatively affected by natural disasters, which are a significant source of stress and fear. This dynamic suggests that a smaller number of newborns may be observed nine months after such events. We investigated this topic, focusing on the Pohang earthquake that occurred on November 15, 2017, in South Korea. For our analysis, we examined birth rates at the city level, using birth registry data from all 1.2 million live births that occurred exclusively between May and December from 2014 to 2018. We aimed to minimize bias by using a difference-in-differences estimation method, based on the distance from the epicenter. Our regression results indicate an 8% decrease in birth rates nine months after the earthquake and an 11% decrease ten months post-earthquake within 0–30 km of the epicenter. In cities located 30–90 km from the epicenter, a 7% reduction in birth rates was observed ten months after the event.