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<p>SMS messages have become a popular tool of voter mobilization by political campaigns and advocacy groups in the United States, yet empirical evidence of their impact is inconclusive. We engage 7.1&#xa0;million voters in one of the largest GOTV experiments in the academic literature in order to assess the impact of SMS content and timing on voter file-validated turnout. Our pre-registered study is conducted with a non-partisan partner organization during the 2018 U.S. Midterm election, varying content and timing of messages sent to women voters and likely voters of color. Results show that assignment to receive any SMS mobilization increases turnout by 0.25% points (pp) relative to a control group, comparable to direct mail and phone calls. However, not all SMS content is equally effective: messages that included social elements of voting, political efficacy, or voter information increased participation, as did encouraging Election Day voting on its own or alongside early in-person voting. Treatment was moderated by vote propensity, prior voting history, and ballot competitiveness, with effects attenuating in battlegrounds. Optimization of data, message, and targeting efforts can increase the effect of assignment to 0.43pp. Results contribute to voter mobilization theory by simultaneously assessing and comparing the impact of eight distinct messaging streams, mobilization timing, and electoral context on turnout.</p>

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The Effects of SMS Mobilization, Message, and Timing on Voter Turnout

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月23日

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  • Katherine Haenschen,
  • Christopher B. Mann,
  • Stephanie L. DeMora

摘要

SMS messages have become a popular tool of voter mobilization by political campaigns and advocacy groups in the United States, yet empirical evidence of their impact is inconclusive. We engage 7.1 million voters in one of the largest GOTV experiments in the academic literature in order to assess the impact of SMS content and timing on voter file-validated turnout. Our pre-registered study is conducted with a non-partisan partner organization during the 2018 U.S. Midterm election, varying content and timing of messages sent to women voters and likely voters of color. Results show that assignment to receive any SMS mobilization increases turnout by 0.25% points (pp) relative to a control group, comparable to direct mail and phone calls. However, not all SMS content is equally effective: messages that included social elements of voting, political efficacy, or voter information increased participation, as did encouraging Election Day voting on its own or alongside early in-person voting. Treatment was moderated by vote propensity, prior voting history, and ballot competitiveness, with effects attenuating in battlegrounds. Optimization of data, message, and targeting efforts can increase the effect of assignment to 0.43pp. Results contribute to voter mobilization theory by simultaneously assessing and comparing the impact of eight distinct messaging streams, mobilization timing, and electoral context on turnout.