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<p>How has the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement changed attitudes toward police? Using a novel application of the synthetic control method, I estimate the overall and partisan effects of BLM on aggregate public opinion. Rather than comparing places with more or less BLM activity, I compare confidence in police to confidence in other institutions, and support for police spending to support for other priorities. I find small or non-existent effects for the overall population, substantial negative effects for Democrats, and substantial positive effects for Republicans. Moreover, and despite Democratic politicians’ attempt to distance themselves from the “defund” position, these partisan effects have persisted, with Democratic backlash against police notably larger than Republican increases in support.</p>

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Protests and Polarization: How Black Lives Matter Changed Attitudes Toward Police

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月4日

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  • Michael W. Sances

摘要

How has the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement changed attitudes toward police? Using a novel application of the synthetic control method, I estimate the overall and partisan effects of BLM on aggregate public opinion. Rather than comparing places with more or less BLM activity, I compare confidence in police to confidence in other institutions, and support for police spending to support for other priorities. I find small or non-existent effects for the overall population, substantial negative effects for Democrats, and substantial positive effects for Republicans. Moreover, and despite Democratic politicians’ attempt to distance themselves from the “defund” position, these partisan effects have persisted, with Democratic backlash against police notably larger than Republican increases in support.