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Objective <p>In the context of global climate change, crop production in arid regions is confronted with the dual challenges of water scarcity and climate change impacts. To predict the production potential of corn with film-covered drip irrigation and re-sowing in arid areas and enhance the adaptability of farmland ecosystems.</p> Method <p>This study employed the DSSAT-CERES-Maize model coupled with CMIP6-CESM2-ssp245 climate scenario data. By constructing localized soil, climate, and cultivar parameter databases, the model's simulation capacity under arid-region mulched drip-irrigation conditions was optimized and its applicability was assessed. The study simulated the effects of different nitrogen application rates and irrigation strategies on the phenological stages, leaf area, and yield of mulched drip-irrigated relay-cropped maize, and estimated the production potential for 2024–2033.</p> Result <p>The RRMSE values for grain yield, above-ground biomass at flowering stage, above-ground biomass at maturity, and maximum leaf area index were 13.03%, 16.25%, 22.52%, and 7.87%. Incorporating a soil temperature compensation mechanism improved model performance under mulched conditions. The optimized model accurately simulated mulched drip-irrigated relay-cropped maize growth in arid regions, with RRMSEs of 13.03% for grain yield, 16.25% for above-ground biomass at flowering, 22.52% for above-ground biomass at maturity, and 7.87% for LAI. Future climate change will shorten the growing period and reduce yield by an average of 16.73% during 2029–2033. Optimized irrigation can slightly increase yield (by 3.59%) while reducing water use.</p> Conclusion <p>This study provides a scientific basis for adaptive management of maize production in arid regions, which is significant for addressing climate change challenges and ensuring food security.</p>

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Applicability of the DSSAT model for drip-irrigated maize production in Xinjiang: model evaluation and yield projection under future climate change

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月15日

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  • Fengxiu Li,
  • Jie Zou,
  • Yingjie Ma,
  • Mingze Yao

摘要

Objective

In the context of global climate change, crop production in arid regions is confronted with the dual challenges of water scarcity and climate change impacts. To predict the production potential of corn with film-covered drip irrigation and re-sowing in arid areas and enhance the adaptability of farmland ecosystems.

Method

This study employed the DSSAT-CERES-Maize model coupled with CMIP6-CESM2-ssp245 climate scenario data. By constructing localized soil, climate, and cultivar parameter databases, the model's simulation capacity under arid-region mulched drip-irrigation conditions was optimized and its applicability was assessed. The study simulated the effects of different nitrogen application rates and irrigation strategies on the phenological stages, leaf area, and yield of mulched drip-irrigated relay-cropped maize, and estimated the production potential for 2024–2033.

Result

The RRMSE values for grain yield, above-ground biomass at flowering stage, above-ground biomass at maturity, and maximum leaf area index were 13.03%, 16.25%, 22.52%, and 7.87%. Incorporating a soil temperature compensation mechanism improved model performance under mulched conditions. The optimized model accurately simulated mulched drip-irrigated relay-cropped maize growth in arid regions, with RRMSEs of 13.03% for grain yield, 16.25% for above-ground biomass at flowering, 22.52% for above-ground biomass at maturity, and 7.87% for LAI. Future climate change will shorten the growing period and reduce yield by an average of 16.73% during 2029–2033. Optimized irrigation can slightly increase yield (by 3.59%) while reducing water use.

Conclusion

This study provides a scientific basis for adaptive management of maize production in arid regions, which is significant for addressing climate change challenges and ensuring food security.