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<p>Borut Trpin has raised a novel objection to Jeffrey conditionalization (JC). He argues that JC can lead to increasing confidence in a false hypothesis, based on non-misleading observations. But I show that on a standard way of understanding whether observations are misleading, that the observations in his case would be misleading. I show why Trpin’s response to this objection is inadequate, and use two probabilistic models to show that (1) the observations actually are misleading and (2) if they are made non-misleading, JC leads to certainty in the true hypothesis. Finally, I prove that the cases that he is worried about cannot arise in general.</p>

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Jeffrey conditionalization: against caution

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月23日

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  • Andrew Doppenberg

摘要

Borut Trpin has raised a novel objection to Jeffrey conditionalization (JC). He argues that JC can lead to increasing confidence in a false hypothesis, based on non-misleading observations. But I show that on a standard way of understanding whether observations are misleading, that the observations in his case would be misleading. I show why Trpin’s response to this objection is inadequate, and use two probabilistic models to show that (1) the observations actually are misleading and (2) if they are made non-misleading, JC leads to certainty in the true hypothesis. Finally, I prove that the cases that he is worried about cannot arise in general.