Embracing complexity: abductive reasoning as a versatile tool for analyzing international large-scale assessments

This paper explores the potential of abductive reasoning to enhance the analysis of international large-scale assessments which have traditionally relied on deductive and inductive reasoning. While these conventional methods have provided valuable insights into global student achievement, they often fail to capture the complexity of educational systems and the nuanced interplay of variables influencing student outcomes. By proposing abductive reasoning as a complementary analytical approach, this study argues for its ability to account for surprising data points and embrace the complexity inherent in educational systems. Abductive reasoning, characterized by the formulation of the most plausible explanations for observed phenomena, offers a promising avenue for generating new hypotheses and uncovering unexpected relationships. Through a detailed examination of the strengths and weaknesses of inductive and deductive reasoning in the context of ILSA data and the introduction of abductive reasoning’s unique characteristics, this paper highlights the benefits and practical applications of abduction in educational research. It also addresses potential limitations and challenges, advocating for a structured application to enhance rigor and mitigate biases. Ultimately, abductive reasoning is presented as a versatile and creative tool that, when used thoughtfully alongside traditional methods, can significantly advance our understanding of global education systems and inform more nuanced and impactful educational policies.