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<p>This paper employs a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2024Q4 to examine the spillover effects of GDP growth, export, and import shocks originating in China and the United States on six Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam). Foreign variables are constructed with time-varying bilateral trade weights, and transmission dynamics are evaluated using generalized impulse response functions (GIRFs). The results reveal that import shocks dominate, followed by GDP shocks. Export shocks are smaller but economically meaningful. Adjustments in financial variables move smoothly, underscoring that the primary transmission operates through real activity and trade channels rather than abrupt financial dislocations. The effects peak in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, whereas responses in Indonesia and the Philippines are substantially weaker.</p>

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China- the United States Economic Slowdown and their Spillovers to ASEAN Economies: A GVAR Approach with Time-Varying Weights

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月16日

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  • Kamphol Panyagometh,
  • Praewpailin Wongsindhuwises

摘要

This paper employs a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2024Q4 to examine the spillover effects of GDP growth, export, and import shocks originating in China and the United States on six Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam). Foreign variables are constructed with time-varying bilateral trade weights, and transmission dynamics are evaluated using generalized impulse response functions (GIRFs). The results reveal that import shocks dominate, followed by GDP shocks. Export shocks are smaller but economically meaningful. Adjustments in financial variables move smoothly, underscoring that the primary transmission operates through real activity and trade channels rather than abrupt financial dislocations. The effects peak in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, whereas responses in Indonesia and the Philippines are substantially weaker.