<p>We estimate the determinants of the ratings gap (the difference in credit ratings on domestic and foreign currency denominated sovereign issues) for three rating agencies and 108 countries. Fiscal and external sector policies matter importantly. We identify significant roles for the overall level of indebtedness, the current fiscal balance, the adequacy of foreign exchange reserves, and the foreign debt share in total debt. A pegged exchange rate and an open capital account both favor local currency issuance, as expected. In contrast, the impact of institutional variables is spotty and varies across rating agencies. We conclude that rating agencies pay closer attention to current policy than to institutional context when comparing the creditworthiness of domestic and foreign currency-denominated government bonds.</p>

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What Determines the Ratings Gap Between Local and Foreign Currency Debt?

  • Barry Eichengreen,
  • Ayden Chi

摘要

We estimate the determinants of the ratings gap (the difference in credit ratings on domestic and foreign currency denominated sovereign issues) for three rating agencies and 108 countries. Fiscal and external sector policies matter importantly. We identify significant roles for the overall level of indebtedness, the current fiscal balance, the adequacy of foreign exchange reserves, and the foreign debt share in total debt. A pegged exchange rate and an open capital account both favor local currency issuance, as expected. In contrast, the impact of institutional variables is spotty and varies across rating agencies. We conclude that rating agencies pay closer attention to current policy than to institutional context when comparing the creditworthiness of domestic and foreign currency-denominated government bonds.